The following paragraph is a refresher on our macro analysis framework from a prior post: We divide the economy into four components: consumer, corporate, real estate, and government. We evaluate each component along several factors including, but not limited to, liquidity, leverage, and sentiment. Each factor is evaluated on both an absolute and trend basis...Read More
In last week’s post, we discussed the monetary and fiscal policy conditions that were in-place the last time the FOMC started to lower interest rates. As a follow up, we began looking at the economic and market conditions that were in-place in September 2007. Starting with the U.S. economy, the major indicators of economic growth...Read More
In a prior post, we mentioned that the FOMC and global central banks have started lowering interest rates. There has been an ongoing debate among financial market commentators about how this will impact the economy and financial assets. One of the biggest factors of this debate is whether global central banks and governments have enough...Read More
Last week, we provided an update on the global economy and what to watch for as potential signs of improvement. Now, we are going to discuss signs that could tell us whether the global equity market will reach a bottom in the near term. One of the indicators is a Bottom Watch report by Ned...Read More
The FOMC moved to lower interest rates on July 31st for the first time since December 2008. However, the most recent policy moves made by the majority of global central banks have been to lower rates, which has been reported less frequently. Most of those rate cuts have occurred this year. Copyright 2019 Ned Davis...Read More
Publicly listed U.S. corporations will start to report second quarter earnings this week, which should provide some helpful insight into potential areas of weakness in the economy. S&P 500 earnings growth year-over-year (YOY) in Q1 was negative, the first decline since Q2 2016. Estimates for YOY growth in Q2 2019 as of July 12, 2019...Read More
In our last post, we discussed the recent decline in short-term interest rates and how different portions of the Treasury curve have performed before and after the FOMC begins to lower the Federal Funds Rate. This week, we will expand the discussion to touch upon how various fixed income sectors perform versus the Bloomberg Barclays...Read More
A few weeks ago, we posted a blog sharing our observation that the only interest rates that were increasing were short-term Treasury rates. Since that time, short-term rates and the future expectations for short-term rates have started to decline. This has been driven by investors’ increased belief that the FOMC is going to be cutting...Read More
The following paragraph is a refresher on our macro analysis framework from a prior post: We divide the economy into four components: consumer, corporate, real estate, and government. We evaluate each component along several factors including, but not limited to, liquidity, leverage, and sentiment. Each factor is evaluated on both an absolute and trend basis...Read More
Yields on U.S. Treasuries have been declining throughout the 2019 calendar year, and that decline has recently accelerated. This has led to a discussion about where the demand is coming from and what groups are driving that demand. Many of these discussions have led to the conclusion that lower interest rates outside of the U.S....Read More
