Weekly Market Minute – Page 24

What else needs to happen for this rally to continue?

April 23, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

In a prior post, we discussed the phases of an equity bear market and last week we commented on the current rally taking place. In order to move into the next bull market cycle, there are a few longer-term signals that need to turn positive. One is earnings estimates hitting a bottom. The rate of...

How does this bear market rally compare to history?

April 15, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

In a prior post, we discussed what happens during a bear market, based on the four phases that Ned Davis Research (NDR) uses (oversold, rally, retest, and breadth thrusts). Since March 23rd, we have been in the rally phase, as the S&P 500 is up over 24% through the close on April 9th. In fact,...

The S&P 500 had a record negative start to 2020. What have returns been like after similar occurrences?

April 9, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

The equity market returns in the first quarter of 2020 were historically low. The S&P 500 was down 19.5%. There have only been 18 quarters in which the S&P 500 has declined by 15% or more. Ten of those occurrences took place between 1929-1939. During the selloff, other safe-haven assets showed their portfolio diversification benefits...

What happens during bear markets on the way to a bottom?

April 2, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

Last week we discussed the length of time it usually takes for bear markets to bottom. This week we are going to look at what tends to occur during bear markets on their way to a bottom. Historically, bear markets have had a slight cycle or rhythm to them. Some of this is caused by...

How long does it take for equity markets to find a bottom, and what comes next?

March 26, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

The recent equity market selloff has been nerve-racking and historic in terms of the severity and duration. From the closing high of the S&P 500 Index on February 19th to the closing low on March 23rd, the index declined 35% (a 99% annualized rate) in just 34 calendar days (24 trading sessions). Both of those...

Policy Responses to Coronavirus

March 24, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

Monetary and Fiscal Policy updates.

When volatility increases across all asset classes, risk management systems require investors to reduce exposures.

March 18, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

Asset price volatility is an important measurement many investors use to manage the risk levels of their portfolios. Some strategies have absolute volatility targets, which means they are targeting the maximum price fluctuation over a certain time period. Other strategies have relative volatility targets, which means they are trying to keep the price fluctuation of...

When the FOMC has to keep cutting interest rates, it is not a positive sign.

March 12, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

The FOMC announced a 50bps reduction to the Fed Funds target rate. The FOMC has lowered the Fed Funds Rate by 125bps since July of 2018. In an October post, we noted that when the FOMC has lowered the Fed Funds rate more than three times and by more than 75bps, the U.S. economy has...

Real Disposable Income starts off the new year heading in the same direction as it did in 2019.

March 6, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

Real Disposable Income starts off the new year heading in the same direction as it did in 2019.

The U.S. Dollar is currently the most important macroeconomic variable.

February 27, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

The U.S. Dollar is currently the most important macroeconomic variable.

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