Weekly Market Minute – Page 23

Is the rebound in Q3 GDP growth the end of the recession?

July 1, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

We, and many others, have been reporting that GDP growth in the second quarter could likely decline at a record analyzed pace estimated to be between 30-40%. The consensus estimates are that GDP growth will accelerate at a 20% annualized rate in Q3. Source: Bloomberg. There are some arguments being made that a positive...

What is the state of the labor market and how do we track the progress?

June 24, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

The labor market has been dramatically impacted by the measures taken to control the spread of COVID-19. There are a few ways to measure the labor market beyond the unemployment rate that can be used to track the overall trends in activity. One measure is looking at the mix of permanent versus temporary unemployment. Typically,...

Headline inflation measures are declining, is that a positive sign?

June 18, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

Inflation data for the month of May was released last week. Prices continued their downward trend and the last three months have set record lows (Core CPI declined for three consecutive months for the first time ever and the annualized three-month trend in Core CPI is the lowest ever). Looking below the surface, we can...

Is this rally the start of a new trend?

June 11, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

The S&P 500, oil, and credit markets have all rallied significantly over the last two months as states have lifted restrictions and economic data has stopped declining. There has been much discussion about whether this rally is sustainable and if it is the start of a new bull market. By looking at some short and...

How much needs to be regained to call it a recovery?

June 3, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

It is our opinion that economic data will likely start to rebound and recover from what in many cases were record lows in March through May. To be considered a true recovery, economic activity would need to return to levels that would have been achieved assuming the slowdown had not occurred. Before discussing the likelihood...

What do we know about the economy and credit markets?

May 28, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

There are currently many unknowns surrounding the economy and the capital markets. We thought it would be useful to highlight what we do know about the current situation and what this could mean for credit markets. In the equity markets, investors have the ability to look past near-term impacts to company fundamentals if they deem...

Is anyone still hiring?

May 20, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

The employment situation in the U.S. continues to be negative, with record levels of people filing initial and continuing jobless claims and an unemployment rate at the highest level since the 1930s (though close to 80% of claims are temporarily unemployed). In a prior post, we mentioned the importance of watching the labor participation rate...

When does absolute growth matter more than relative growth?

May 14, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

When evaluating macro-economic data and how it links back to the impact on asset class returns and portfolio positioning, we normally focus on rates of change. The trend, whether things are getting better or worse, has historically mattered more than the absolutes, whether things are good or bad. This is not necessarily the case when...

Gauging the depth of the slowdown and duration to recovery.

May 6, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

There are a few data points that can help determine how deep the decline will be from the economic slowdown and how long it will take for the recovery to get back to prior levels. We can look at some key employment data to measure the depths of the decline. Weekly initial jobless claims have...

Will the current fiscal and monetary policy initiatives cause inflation?

April 29, 2020Rank Dawson, CFA, FDPWeekly Market Minute

One of the debates that has surfaced as a result of the recent fiscal and monetary policy initiatives is whether or not the initiatives will cause inflation. While we have no way of perfectly predicting the future, we can outline how inflation is measured, the conditions that led to prior increases in inflation measures, what...

1 … 21 22 23 24 25 … 30

Category