Over the last few quarters, we have been highlighting the trend in commercial banks’ ability and willingness to lend and what impact that might have on the economy. Last week, we received data from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) for 2Q23. Across most measures, banks remain at historically elevated levels, even in categories […]
On August 1, 2023, Fitch rating agency downgraded the debt of the U.S. Government from AAA to AA+, citing “the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance relative to ‘AA’ and ‘AAA’ rated peers over the last two decades that has […]
As we move through the second half of 2023, debate around hard-landing, soft-landing, or no-landing scenarios continues to grab headlines. We have been providing updates on economic trends in growth and inflation measures that would suggest we are in a similar environment to prior economic slowdowns. To dive deeper into that analysis, we have shifted […]
While many market commentators remain focused on equity indexes, the underlying economic environment continues to decelerate on a rate of change basis. Before reviewing the latest macro trends, the charts below provide some historical context to equity index performance heading into economic slowdowns. The point of this analysis is not to highlight the drawdowns or […]
Orders, imports, retail sales, and prices are all sending the same message – demand slowdown. The synchronicity of these growth and inflation measures sliding lower provides further confirmation of a weakening economic backdrop. We believe this is what long-end rates and the yield curve have been signaling for the last few months. If the economy […]
The second quarter of 2023 began under the weight of regional banking concerns and debt ceiling negotiations, coupled with expectations for a slowdown in growth and stubbornly high inflation. Despite a worrisome backdrop at the start of the quarter, risk assets performed well, and interest rates moved higher across the yield curve. Providing a sigh […]
Several central banks have hiked rates and are talking about the need to do more, even as most global growth and inflation measures decelerate year-over-year. The market’s response to that divergence has resulted in more inverted yield curves. Historically, yield curve inversions have been a useful indication that some version of an economic slowdown is […]
Medical office buildings (“MOBs”) have increasingly become a targeted asset class for institutional buyers of real estate due to their stable demand, long-term leases, creditworthy tenancy, and purpose-built infrastructure. The growing number of institutional investors seeking opportunities in this market led to an all-time high in transaction pricing and volume in 2022, peaking at $397 […]
Chinese economic activity was expected to accelerate to start 2023 and provide support to global activity. Instead, the data has moved in the other direction and is likely an indication they are not isolated from the slowdown we have observed globally. A slowdown in Chinese economic activity will likely weigh on global economic activity. Starting […]
In the last few weeks, we have been noting the weakness in economic data from the U.S. and corporate earnings. In our view, this indicates a slowdown occurring domestically, as well as a reflection of what we have seen in other countries. Given this is a global system, it is important to monitor and highlight […]