Business sentiment weakened across the board in the most recent round of releases. The S&P Global Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was flat to down in the United States, Eurozone, France, Germany, United Kingdom, and Australia. The June survey data reflects worsening conditions versus the prior month.
Source: Macrobond.
In the U.S., the composite index fell to 51.2 from 53.6 and the manufacturing component slid 4.6 points to 52.4. The services component, which was supposed to improve upon COVID relief, dropped to 51.6 from 53.4.
Source: Macrobond.
On the consumer side, sentiment data moved in tandem with the PMIs, declining across most countries. Consumer confidence declined to all-time lows in the U.K., Poland, Denmark, and Netherlands. The broader Euro Area declined as well, and excluding the depths of the pandemic, is near all-time lows reached during the Global Financial Crisis.
Source: Macrobond.
Consumer confidence in France, Australia, and Taiwan has also been decelerating over the last year.
Source: Macrobond.
In the United States, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a record low. Consumer confidence dropped to 50 from 58.4, current conditions fell to 53.8 from 63.3, and expectations came down to the lowest level since May of 1980 at 47.5. Additionally, consumer’s assessment of their current financial situation compared to one year ago is the lowest in nearly a decade.
Source: University of Michigan.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey dipped 4.5 points to 98.7. This is its lowest level since February 2021 and remains well below its June 2021 peak of 128.9.
Source: Macrobond.
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Senior Economic Analyst
Boyd Watterson Asset Management, LLC