S&P Global Flash PMI data for November was mixed in terms of m/m changes, but the broader contractionary trend remains in place. Of the seven countries reported so far, only the U.S. and U.K. are above the contraction line at 50.7 and 50.1, respectively. Activity mostly improved on the services side from weak levels, while […]
The Household Debt & Credit Report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for 3Q23 included further evidence that the consumer debt setup has continued to move in a negative direction. Credit card balances that transitioned into 30+ day delinquency increased to 8.01%, its highest level since 2011. Similarly, credit card balances that transitioned […]
When it comes to analyzing the labor market, we are focused on private-sector payroll growth in conjunction with real earnings growth (i.e. do more people have more spending power). For the month of October, private nonfarm payrolls decelerated to 1.7% y/y. Another way to monitor payroll growth is through various rates of change and over […]
Real personal consumption expenditure accelerated 0.38% m/m in September. At the same time, real disposable personal income decelerated -0.08% m/m, its fourth month in a row registering a decline, and the personal saving rate fell 60 basis points to 3.40%. Looking back on the third quarter, the spending, income, and saving data would suggest consumers […]
Nominal retail sales accelerated to 3.8% y/y in September, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. In terms of the read-through to GDP for 3Q23, the recent re-acceleration of headline retail sales has been a positive development. However, underneath the headline number, the drivers of that growth have come from categories that are more related […]
The level and direction of interest rate volatility can have broader impacts on asset markets. Since the end of July, Treasury volatility remained elevated, and Treasury yields and oil prices moved higher, while equities and gold moved lower. More recently, volatility across rates, oil, gold, and equities has started to accelerate again. One of the […]
State and local governments are embracing new building performance standards to combat climate change. Given that buildings are currently responsible for 39% of global energy related carbon emissions, building owners are facing increased pressure to improve energy efficiency and create more sustainable buildings(1). Green buildings are perceived to cost significantly more than conventional buildings. However, […]
The direction of consumer spending has implications for broader economic activity. If income growth slows while gasoline prices rise, overall spending could be negatively impacted as less money becomes available for more discretionary categories. Source: Macrobond. Since the start of the year, the average retail price for regular gasoline has risen from $3.22 to $3.84 […]
From a macro perspective, the ‘higher for longer’ sentiment appears to be one of the few themes that investors mostly agreed upon as the third quarter of 2023 ended. At the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the target rate was left unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%, but the ‘dot plot’ left room for […]
The two main reasons we monitor the housing market are for insights into the rates of change in prices and what it could mean for the Shelter component of CPI (which could impact Fed policy) and more broadly as a view into the consumer demand setup (price/rate sensitivity) through transaction volume. Both indicators should help […]