The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI declined further into contractionary territory in August. The index dropped 2.7 points to 45, down for the fifth consecutive month. This also marks two consecutive months in contractionary territory (below 50), providing more evidence of the previously discussed (July 6, 2022; April 6, 2022) slowdown in economic activity....Read More

Much of the economic and market commentary in the last month has focused on whether the economy is entering a recession. Specifically, how severe or long a possible recession could be and what that may mean for jobs. We cannot say for certain how any future economic slowdown would impact the current labor market, but...Read More

Over the last few months, we have been writing about a rising probability that economic growth will slow down on a rate of change basis. The most recent round of housing data releases provided more evidence towards that scenario. The National Association of Home Builder’s Housing Market Index, a leading sentiment indicator for the single-family...Read More

Elevated inflation, particularly in food and energy, is taking up a greater portion of consumers’ disposable income which can lead to a slowdown in overall demand and negatively impact corporate profitability. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated 9.00% year-over-year in June. This increase was driven primarily by higher food and energy prices. Food prices moved...Read More

U.S. Dollar exchange rates have implications for the trajectory of global economic activity. The majority of global businesses rely on access to U.S. Dollars in order to remain operational. A rising dollar increases the day-to-day costs of doing business internationally. Historically, the result is a less favorable economic environment for real growth. The DXY Index...Read More

Business sentiment weakened across the board in the most recent round of releases. The S&P Global Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was flat to down in the United States, Eurozone, France, Germany, United Kingdom, and Australia. The June survey data reflects worsening conditions versus the prior month. Source: Macrobond. In the U.S., the composite index...Read More

Last week, labor data from Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) were updated for the month of December. ADP Nonfarm Private Payrolls reported a +807,000 jump in the month of December, the largest increase since May 2021. This marks the twelfth consecutive month of positive prints for ADP Payrolls....Read More

The monthly rate of headline inflation increased +0.9% in October, led by rising energy prices. It was the fastest month-over-month acceleration in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) since June 2008. The percent change from a year ago moved up +6.2%. The last time CPI accelerated this quickly on a year-over-year basis was October 1990 at...Read More