For most of 2022, U.S. Treasury yields followed the path of Fed rate hikes. Yields at the front end of the curve moved higher on anticipation of more rate hikes, but the long end of the curve moved up by less, which resulted in a flattening of the 2y10y and 3m10y curves. The front end...Read More

The blended y/y earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is estimated to come in at +5.8% for 2023. Analysts are forecasting a +36.0% jump in Consumer Discretionary earnings, followed by +14.2% in Financials, +13.9% in Industrials, and +10.2% in Communication Services. Energy, Materials, and Health Care are projected to have negative earnings growth at...Read More

When reviewing the tables below, it is important to remember that a number below 50 indicates a contractionary environment. S&P Global Composite PMI data for most countries declined on a m/m basis and several made new lows for the year. That trend is unfolding in both manufacturing and services. Source: Macrobond. The Institute of Supply...Read More

GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in 3Q22, led by a 2.77 percentage point contribution from net exports. Personal consumption expenditures added 0.97, which was a rate of change slowdown from the prior quarter and versus 3Q21. Government spending added 0.42 points, its first positive contribution since 1Q21. Source: Macrobond.  Exports jumped 14.4% q/q...Read More

A focus for market participants is the outlook for short-term interest rates and FOMC guidance into 2023. There are market-based indicators that we monitor that can be helpful in tracking how the market is discounting probable outcomes related to short-term lending rates. Overnight index swaps have increased over the last six months and recently moved...Read More

The Consumer Price Index accelerated 0.39% m/m with Shelter leading the way, contributing 0.24% to the total m/m increase. On a y/y basis, the headline CPI decelerated modestly from last month’s pace to 8.22% from 8.25%. Shelter contributed 2.18% of the total y/y increase, its tenth consecutive month making a new all-time high contribution. Source:...Read More

In the month of August, existing home sales decelerated -19.87% y/y, following -20.07 y/y in the prior month. This marks the thirteenth consecutive month of negative y/y growth. On a m/m basis, existing home sales fell -0.41% in August after back-to-back declines of more than 5% in June and July. The median sales price of...Read More

The U.S. Dollar, using the DXY Index, is up 19% on a year-to-date basis and 27% from its cycle low on January 5th, 2021. As of September 26th, the index is at 113.88, its highest level since May 2002. Source: Macrobond. Listed below are a few callouts to provide global context to the current environment....Read More

The headline Consumer Price Index number came in at 8.3% y/y for the month of August. While still at elevated absolute levels, it was a rate of change deceleration from 8.5% in July and 9.0% in June. On a m/m basis, CPI accelerated 0.12%, following -0.02% in July. Food prices accelerated 11.4% y/y, but the...Read More

Most major European economies are facing all-time highs or multi-decade highs in producer and consumer prices. One of the critical developments in recent months is the acceleration of European energy prices. This increase in prices is a double-edged sword. First, higher energy prices increase producer costs, and companies will attempt to pass that cost onto...Read More