In May, we put together a list of market indicators to watch in order to gauge how investors were viewing the US-China trade negotiations. Since the Phase I deal was recently signed, we thought it would be beneficial to revisit how these indicators have evolved since May.
While the economic indicators we follow suggest the US and Chinese economies are likely to continue slowing in the first half of 2020, the equity and FX market indicators have responded well and suggest a different set of expectations for 2020. The bond market indicators seem to confirm the economic data, suggesting lower growth, inflation, and a bias towards easy monetary policy. We will keep monitoring the list and report back when we get more updates on Phase Two.
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Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.
Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.
Source: FactSet.
Source: FactSet.
Source: FactSet.
Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.
Copyright 2020 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.
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Senior Vice President, Investment Strategy
Boyd Watterson Asset Management, LLC