For the last few months, we have been commenting on what we see as a disconnect between the strong rally in the S&P 500 index, the lack of confirmation from other market segments, and the weakness in economic leading indicators.  Based on the most recent bout of volatility centered around trade negotiations, we believe it...Read More

In the blog post last week, we mentioned an apparent lack of confirmation of the new high in the S&P 500 compared to other parts of the equity markets.  We briefly mentioned a similar development in the high yield credit market.  High yield credit has not made a new high versus Treasuries, which peaked on...Read More

Corporate credit has been behaving in an interesting way to start 2019.  While lower rated credits have generated higher returns, with high yield outperforming investment grade and CCC rated securities outperforming BB and B rated securities, a deeper analysis reveals that investors may not be allocating as aggressively as they seem.  Lower rated and longer...Read More

There is continued debate in the financial media as to whether the yield curve is truly inverted (the 2- to 10-year portion of the curve is not inverted and the 5-10 and 5-30 year has steepened) and what the yield curve does or does not signal about the economy and market performance.  Stepping back from...Read More

In last week’s post, we reiterated that the global economy is likely to continue declining in 2019.  Portions of the yield curve have become inverted with the 3-month Treasury bill currently yielding 2.44% while the 2-, 5-, and 10-year Treasuries yield 2.19%, 2.15%, and 2.35%, respectively.  This has led to increased discussion and focus on...Read More

During every cycle, different components of the economy evolve in their own unique manner.  We divide the economy into four components; consumer, corporate, real estate, and government and evaluate them along several factors including, but not limited to, liquidity, leverage, and sentiment.  Each factor is evaluated on an absolute and a trend basis to determine...Read More

There has been an interesting confluence of market activity and data releases since the December 24, 2018 bottom in the S&P 500 index. The S&P 500 is up 10% YTD, but earnings estimates have generally declined, meaning stock multiples have generally expanded. Copyright 2019 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All...Read More

Global economic data continued to decline in the early parts of 2019, while the U.S. remains the strongest region. Despite weak economic data and negative earnings revisions, risk markets have rebounded strongly as sentiment has improved and concerns about further monetary tightening have dissipated.Read More

Equity and credit markets have been declining in the fourth quarter as investors have become more concerned about the outlook for the economy and earnings in 2019. A change in monetary policy and financial conditions are new wrinkles from prior risk asset pullbacks experienced since 2009.Read More

The quest to stay up-to-date on the real estate landscape and make connections in the marketplace never stops. A recent Urban Land Institute (ULI) conference helped shed some light on how transit-oriented development projects are having a transformative impact and what secondary cities are doing to attract businesses and residents.Read More