The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was updated through May and the information contained in the survey is a good summary of the current economic environment.  The headline number declined marginally (-0.2 points) to 99.6.  The underlying components reveal that the outlook is declining.  This is occurring at a time when job openings and hiring...Read More

The PMI data for the month of May continued to support the ongoing trend of higher growth and inflation.  The ISM Manufacturing PMI increased 0.5 points to 61.2, the second highest level since May 2004.  The Markit version has a shorter history and increased to a new record of 62.1.  Within the ISM report, new...Read More

Economic activity is shifting toward services and away from goods as mobility and venue capacity increase.  Durable goods activity declined on a month-over-month (MoM) basis in April for the first time since April of 2020.  Durable goods are typically larger purchases that have long lives, so it was very likely that activity was going to...Read More

Data from the prior week continued to highlight how supply constraints across the economy are putting upward pressure on prices.  There are some signs that this could eventually impact economic activity.  Some states are making changes to their unemployment policies that may cause supply to increase and bring down continuing jobless claims. Markit provided updates...Read More

We have been writing about the rise in cost pressures due to improving economic activity and ongoing supply constraints.  This has become a mainstream concern and something that can have major implications on asset class returns.  Predicting how long these inflationary pressures will last is not possible, but we can monitor some market-based indicators to...Read More

For the last few weeks, we have been highlighting that supply has been the major constraint on activity as the economy continues to normalize.  The data this week continued that trend across multiple economic and market data points. The April Manufacturing and Services PMIs were released, and both remained at high levels (the ISM versions...Read More

Consumer data in the U.S. continues to make steady progress as improving labor market data supports incomes and confidence, which is helping spending.  Personal income data increased by a record 21% month-over-month (m/m), driven by the newest fiscal stimulus benefits.  Employee compensation (wages) increased by 1%, the most since August 2020.  Proprietor’s income (business ownership)...Read More

Economic data was light this week but continued to point to increasing economic growth and inflation.  The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index increased 1.3% and all ten components made positive contributions. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which is comprised of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity, increased to the highest level since July...Read More

Economic data from the month of March continues to be strong while the market signal trends in April have shifted in certain areas. On the economic front, consumption continues to be very strong, as retail sales data in March increased 9.8% month-over-month (m/m), 14.7% year-over-year(y/y) (fastest pace since February 1979) and is up 22% compared...Read More

Our recent posts have been aimed at determining if the weakness in economic data from February and the decline in performance of cyclical and inflation sensitive assets was a sign of a change in the trend that started in November, or if it was just a temporary setback. The economic data this week continued to...Read More