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April 20, 2022

Nominal retail sales growth is slowing while real retail sales have turned negative as inflation has increased. Consumer spending will likely continue to weaken against difficult comparisons, and inflation will likely remain elevated but could slow in coming months.

Throughout the course of 2022, we have been reiterating our view that economic growth and inflation would likely slow on a rate of change basis compared to 2021.  One of the reasons we mentioned is that the comparison set would be more challenging in 2022, especially starting in March.  The release of the March retail...
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