Retail sales accelerated in March.

Retail sales increased by 0.7% m/m in March to 4.0% y/y, an acceleration from 2.1% y/y growth in the prior month. On an inflation-adjusted basis, retail sales increased by 0.3% m/m to 0.5% y/y, an acceleration from -1.0% in the prior month. The y/y comparison set for nominal and real retail sales eases again in April but at a slightly slower pace than March.

Source: Macrobond. 

For the third month in a row, most of the y/y growth came from Non-Store Retailers, which accelerated 2.7% m/m to 11.3% y/y. Furniture stores lagged the most, declining by 1.8% m/m to a y/y pace of -6.1%, its sixth month in the last seven as the worst performing category.

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Source: Macrobond. 

Looking at the bigger picture, we are still moving through a period of weak unit growth. This can be seen when comparing nominal retail sales versus inflation-adjusted retail sales. One way we can look at this setup is by rebasing each series to March 2021.

Source: Macrobond. 

If real economic activity were to improve from here, we would expect to likely see an acceleration in unit growth. We will continue to provide updates on this setup as more data becomes available.

The views expressed herein are presented for informational purposes only and are not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or security or as a promise of future performance.  The information, opinions, and views contained herein are current only as of the date hereof and are subject to change at any time without prior notice.