Intro With the U.S. Government shutdown in effect, key economic indicators we monitor are no longer being released. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi can offer a view into how long these market participants believe the shutdown will last. Between now and the end of the shutdown, we can track alternative data to provide some...Read More

Intro Our view coming into the year was that we would likely see the Federal Reserve cut rates by a total of 50 basis points toward the back end of the year, largely due to our expectations for moderate, but not recessionary growth and elevated inflation data. In recent weeks, expectations for rate cuts have...Read More

Intro We monitor consumer income, savings, job growth, and other consumer measures because of their potential to alter the trajectory of consumer spending, the largest component to GDP, which ultimately plays a role in the path of interest rates. As it stands today, the broad consumer backdrop has not weakened to levels that would be...Read More

Intro Real GDP for 2Q25 expanded at a 3.0% quarter-over-quarter annualized rate compared to the -0.5% contraction in the first quarter. Year-over-year growth remained at 2.0%, unchanged from the previous quarter. The quarterly rebound reflected mixed performance across major components, with consumer spending maintaining modest expansion while investment activity shifted down due to a reversal...Read More

Intro The June employment data provided additional insight into four critical labor market dynamics that will likely have broader implications for economic activity. On the data front, private sector hiring continued to slow, the unemployment rate ticked down, and wage growth showed signs of incremental cooling against the backdrop of weaker population growth estimates through...Read More

Intro S&P Global Flash PMIs for the United States were in line with our expectations for the direction of economic activity, signaling a moderation in growth and higher inflation. The Composite PMI declined to 52.8 from 53.0, Manufacturing was unchanged at 52.0, and Services declined to 53.1 from 53.7. Manufacturing and Services sectors reported higher...Read More

Intro Our view has been that economic growth would fail to hit recessionary levels, and inflation was more likely to accelerate on a rate of change basis through September, pushing out expectations for rate cuts further. We saw the first sequential acceleration in y/y CPI growth last week and a decline in the number of...Read More

Intro The Consumer Price Index slowed to a four-year low of 2.3%, but the path forward remains difficult in terms of reaching and sustaining the FOMC’s 2.0% inflation target. On the y/y contribution front, Housing added 180 basis points, up from 160 basis points, and Motor Fuel subtracted 45 basis points, down from 36 basis...Read More

Intro Commercial bank loans and leases reached fresh record highs for the tenth week in a row through April 26th, according to the latest H.8 release from the Federal Reserve. The year-to-date trajectory is above its comparative periods of 2023 and 2024 but could be the result of pull-forward dynamics related to policy uncertainty, similar...Read More

Intro Real GDP contracted by 0.3% on a q/q annualized basis and the y/y pace slowed to 2.0% from 2.5%. This was largely anticipated due to tariff-impacted trade dynamics, with imports subtracting 5.0% from headline growth. Despite the negative q/q headline print, the rest of the report did not send imminent recession signals. However, we...Read More