Economic activity in the United States ended 2025 demonstrating resilience amid a historic 43-day government shutdown, persistent yet easing inflation pressures, and unprecedented challenges to Federal Reserve independence. The record-breaking government shutdown led to significant lapses in data collection and scheduled releases, leaving market participants and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with an incomplete...Read More

Economic activity in the United States appears to be well-positioned for another positive quarter, demonstrating remarkable resilience amid soft job growth, elevated inflation, and on-going fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty.Read More

The U.S. economy demonstrated modest resilience in the second quarter of 2025 as GDP growth likely turned positive, despite persistent inflation, softening labor market conditions, and a challenging global backdrop. Beneath the surface, however, growing tensions around trade policy, rising geopolitical risks, and intensifying political pressure on the Federal Reserve have complicated the near-term outlook...Read More

The new year began with a more complex economic landscape, characterized by unclear fiscal and restrictive monetary policies, and escalating geopolitical tensions, all fueling increased uncertainty. Growth has slowed due to uncertain tariff strategies, while inflation remains persistently above the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) 2.0% target. We anticipate softening growth and moderating, yet elevated,...Read More

Entering the fourth quarter, our expectations were for measures of economic activity to come in at levels that would reduce the number of expected interest rate cuts in 2025. Despite continued economic expansion, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds rate by a total of fifty basis points in the fourth quarter,...Read More

In recent months, as most measures of inflation continued to moderate, concerns about softening labor market trends shifted the focus of both investors and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to the other side of the Committee’s dual mandate, maximum employment. Despite the acknowledgement that both sides of their dual mandate had come into better...Read More

Last quarter, we highlighted the rising probability that economic growth would continue to expand in 2024 while stickier-than-expected inflation would persist. As we cross the midpoint of the year, we are reiterating that view while acknowledging some pockets of the economy could offer underwhelming results over the near term.Read More

The first quarter began with the expectation that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would cut its policy rate at least six times in 2024, beginning as soon as March. This was double the number of rate cuts the FOMC guided toward in their ‘dot plot’ from December. Over the course of the quarter, the...Read More

The fourth quarter began with expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would maintain its ‘higher for longer’ interest rate policy stance while keeping open the possibility of an additional rate hike by year end. However, at their December policy meeting, Committee members voted to leave their policy rate unchanged, signaling the need for...Read More

From a macro perspective, the ‘higher for longer’ sentiment appears to be one of the few themes that investors mostly agreed upon as the third quarter of 2023 ended. At the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the target rate was left unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%, but the ‘dot plot’ left room for...Read More