While a portion of labor market data has been trending in the wrong direction, we believe the current setup is not indicative of a meaningful contraction in broader economic activity. However, we will continue to monitor these trends closely as we move through the rest of the year within the scope of the larger economic...Read More

Retail sales accelerated 0.1% m/m in May, up from -0.2% in the prior month, but the y/y pace slowed to 2.3% from 2.7%. The y/y comparison set eases in June but gets slightly tougher from July through September. Alongside other economic data we have highlighted in prior posts, retail sales data from the third quarter...Read More

Total nonfarm payrolls increased by 272,000 in the month of May, but decelerated y/y to 1.77%. Underneath the headline number, there a few developing trend changes worth highlighting: Key goods-producing industries are no longer making new cycle lows on a y/y basis. Government payrolls have not been making new cycle highs on a y/y basis....Read More

Overnight index swaps (OIS) are pricing in a near 100% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) at their June 6th meeting. Given the base effect setup for economic activity and upward direction in market data out of Europe, we will be noting how council members of the ECB...Read More

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated by 0.3% m/m, down from last month’s pace of 0.4%. On a y/y basis, CPI decelerated to 3.4% from 3.5% against a slightly tougher comparison set that eases meaningfully in May and June. The average m/m run rate over the last three months is 0.4%, which would put the...Read More

Developments within the consumer-related data stood out in the 2Q24 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, especially when paired with the G.19 Consumer Credit report and latest retail sales numbers. Standards for credit card loans mostly remained unchanged at tight levels and demand was moderately weaker, while the setup for auto loans worsened (tighter standards, weaker...Read More

Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) make up roughly 70% of real gross domestic product, thus the direction of consumer spending is critical to mapping out probable paths for domestic economic growth. To do this, we can track the monthly consumer spending data alongside other consumer data like income, savings rate, and credit use. For the...Read More

Given the pace at which new orders decelerated in 1Q23 compared to 1Q22, it should not have been as difficult for 1Q24 order growth to accelerate. Instead, the average y/y growth rate for headline durable goods orders decelerated in the first quarter and will face a tougher comparison in the second quarter. Thus, we will...Read More

Retail sales increased by 0.7% m/m in March to 4.0% y/y, an acceleration from 2.1% y/y growth in the prior month. On an inflation-adjusted basis, retail sales increased by 0.3% m/m to 0.5% y/y, an acceleration from -1.0% in the prior month. The y/y comparison set for nominal and real retail sales eases again in...Read More

The Consumer Price Index increased by 0.4% m/m in March, accelerating to 3.5% y/y from 3.2% in the prior month. We have highlighted in the past how slowly the Shelter component was decelerating and what that would mean in terms of holding the headline CPI number higher. In the latest update, Shelter increased by 0.4%...Read More