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August 18, 2021

Economic data is still being heavily influenced by the impact of COVID-19, making comparisons to 2020 challenging in terms of determining the trajectory of growth and inflation. We think market signals are going to be a more helpful guide in determining the economic outlook priced into assets.

Due to the large moves up and down in economic data in 2020 caused by the shutdown of activity, it is challenging to determine the expected path of the rate of change in economic activity because the comparison set is so unusual.  The rate of change in economic growth and inflation rates has important implications...
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